Decision-making and action /
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| Author / Creator: | Pomerol, Jean-Charles. |
|---|---|
| Imprint: | London : ISTE ; Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2012. |
| Description: | xii, 274 p. : ill. ; 24 cm. |
| Language: | English |
| Subject: | |
| Format: | Print Book |
| URL for this record: | http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/8903035 |
Table of Contents:
- Introduction
- Chapter 1. What is a Decision, or What Does Decision Theory Have to Teach Us?
- 1.1. Actions and events
- 1.2. Probabilities
- 1.3. Expected utility
- 1.4. Subjective probabilities and rationality of the decision
- 1.5. Caveats and recommendations
- 1.5.1. Distinction between actions and events
- 1.5.2. Distinction between decisions and results
- 1.5.3. Expectancy-based reasoning
- 1.5.4. Identification of all the probabilities and all the possible events
- Chapter 2. Scenarios and Conditional Probabilities
- 2.1. Scenarios
- 2.2. Compound probabilities
- 2.3. Scenarios and conditional probabilities
- 2.4. Decision tree
- 2.5. Scenarios, information and pragmatics
- 2.6. Pursuance of the scenarios and the "just one more push"
- 2.7. Conditional probabilities and accidents
- 2.8. Caveats and recommendations
- 2.8.1. Robustness of the result
- 2.8.2. Updating the scenarios and conditional probabilities
- 2.8.3. Slight probabilities
- 2.8.4. Re-evaluation of decisions
- 2.8.5. Knowing how to lose
- Chapter 3. The Process of Decision-Making and its Rationality, or What Does Artificial Intelligence Have to Teach Us?
- 3.1. A decision as a problem
- 3.2. Decision table
- 3.3. The general process of decision-making
- 3.4. Case-based reasoning
- 3.5. The Olympian point-of-view, and H. Simon's view
- 3.6. Information
- 3.7. Limited rationality
- 3.8. Heuristics
- 3.9. Cognitive limitation
- 3.10. Feedback on rationality in decisions
- 3.11. Caveats and recommendations
- 3.11.1. Be imaginative
- 3.11.2. Stay on top of the problem and of time
- 3.11.3. Filter the information
- 3.11.4. Take a retrospective view
- 3.11.5. Be reactive rather than optimal
- 3.11.6. Constantly re-evaluate your objectives
- Chapter 4. Intuition, Emotion, Recognition and Reasoning or, What Docs the Neurobiology of Decision-Making Have to Teach Us?
- 4.1. Introduction
- 4.2. Animal "decision"
- 4.3. Recognition-primed decision
- 4.4. The brain and emotion
- 4.5. Short-term, long-term
- 4.6. The Bayesian brain
- 4.7. Caveats and recommendations
- 4.7.1. Beware of the emotions generated by recognition of decisional patterns
- 4.7.2. Structure the knowledge
- 4.7.3. The colors of the projection
- 4.7.4. Introduce learning into recognition-based learning systems
- Chapter 5. Decision-Making in the Presence of Conflicting Criteria, or What Docs a Multicriterion Decision Aid Have to Teach Us?
- 5.1. Preference structures
- 5.2. Multicriterion decision aid
- 5.3. Weighted sum aggregation
- 5.4. Other aggregation methods
- 5.5. Aggregation of votes
- 5.6. Social choice and collective decision
- 5.7. Individual reactions to multicriterion decision-making
- 5.8. Constraints and multicriterion decision-making in organizations
- 5.9. Caveats and recommendations
- 5.9.1. Finding a compromise between the different Pareto optima
- 5.9.2. Balancing between the criteria to be aggregated
- 5.9.3. The best decision in a multidimensional world does not exist
- 5.9.4. Beware of false choices
- 5.9.5. The goals and the constraints are interchangeable
- 5.9.6. Multiplicity of the goals and criteria
- 5.9.7. Use the multicriterion decision aid
- Chapter 6. The Dec is ion-Maker's Psychology, or What Does Psychology Have to Teach Us?
- 6.1. Introduction
- 6.2. The decision-maker's rationality and utility function
- 6.3. Constructing the utility function
- 6.4. Utility function in the risk
- 6.5. Loss aversion and the endowment effect
- 6.6. Biases related to the probabilities
- 6.7. Self-confidence and the illusion of control
- 6.8. Biases linked to memory
- 6.9. Frame effect
- 6.10. Level of reference and anchoring
- 6.11. Rationalization and reinforcement
- 6.12. System 1 or System 2?
- 6.13. Biases or heuristics?
- 6.14. Caveats and recommendations
- 6.14.1. A good decision-maker must make an effort to be rational in his preferences
- 6.14.2. Be aware of risk-taking in loss-heavy situations
- 6.14.3. Do not overvalue the status quo
- 6.14.4. Be objective in your estimation of the probabilities
- 6.14.5. Be wary, but not pessimistic
- 6.14.6. Do not think that you control the events
- 6.14.7. Do not be over-confident
- 6.14.8. Do not trust your memory
- 6.14.9. Framing and reference point
- 6.14.10. Do not make unproven correlations
- 6.14.11. Avoid over-simplistic categorizations
- 6.14.12. Do not be taken in by pretty stories
- 6.14.13. Beware of commitment escalation
- 6.14.14. Be mindful of the halo effect
- Chapter 7. Context of the Decision: Intention, Commitment, Trust, Fairness, Authority and Freedom
- 7.1. Intention and commitment
- 7.2. Trust and reciprocity
- 7.3. Fairness
- 7.4. Freedom and responsibility
- 7.5. Authority
- 7.6. "Leadership" in organizations
- 7.7. Rationality between logic and probabilities
- 7.8. Rationality and "good reasons"
- 7.9. Caveats and recommendations
- 7.9.1. Genuine and false commitment
- 7.9.2. Threats
- 7.9.3. Transparency
- 7.9.4. Reciprocity
- 7.9.5. Explaining your decisions
- 7.9.6. Bias in favor of the status quo
- 7.9.7. Getting help
- 7.9.8. Fairness
- 7.9.9. Resentment
- 7.9.10. Freedom
- 7.9.11. Responsibility
- 7.9.12. Authority
- 7.9.13. Groups and leaders
- 7.9.14. Rationality
- Chapter 8. Action: Giving the Impetus or Managing
- 8.1. Deciding and acting
- 8.2. Quick or slow decision-makers
- 8.3. Consensual or imperative decision-makers
- 8.4. To act or to manage? That is the question
- 8.5. Reflect long, project long term: strategic planning and decision-making in organizations
- 8.6. Feedback and learning
- 8.7. Conclusion
- 8.8. Caveats and recommendations
- 8.8.1. Decision is inseparable from action
- 8.8.2. A good decision-maker is quick
- 8.8.3. Inaction is a decision
- 8.8.4. Other people's criteria
- 8.8.5. Consensus is not always possible
- 8.8.6. The decision is not only impulsion
- 8.8.7. Plans are useful before the action commences
- 8.8.8. Strategic planning
- 8.8.9. Learn from feedback
- 8.8.10. "No regrets; they don't work" in action
- 8.8.11. Learn faster than your competition
- Chapter 9. Vade Mecum of the Acting Decision-Maker
- 9.1. That which depends on you, and that which does not
- 9.1.1. The alternatives and the events must be dealt with separately
- 9.1.2. A good decision-maker will avoid thinking that he controls the events
- 9.1.3. The result depends on your action and on nature
- 9.2. That which depends on you: information, imagination and the process of decision-making
- 9.2.1. You must make an effort to properly identify all the possible events
- 9.2.2. You must make an effort to properly identify all the possible alternatives
- 9.2.3. Information-seeking and information-filtering are crucial steps
- 9.2.4. A good decision-maker attempts to always remain "master of the problem and of time"
- 9.2.5. You must stick with "satisficing" decisions
- 9.3. That which depends only on you: learning and planning
- 9.3.1. A good decision-maker must always take a retrospective view of his decisions (review them)
- 9.3.2. You must always monitor the situation and update your scenarios in real-time
- 9.3.3. You must always keep your objectives in mind
- 9.3.4. Plans are useful before action
- 9.3.5. Strategic planning
- 9.3.6. Learning from feedback
- 9.3.7. No regrets; they don't work in action
- 9.3.8. Recognition-primed action
- 9.4. That which depends on nature: the pitfalls of probabilities
- 9.4.1. Be objective in your estimation of the probabilities
- 9.4.2. Identify all the probabilities, and do not overlook small ones up to the order of 10 -3 or 10 -4
- 9.4.3. Expectancy-based reasoning
- 9.4.4. Remain rational in uncertainty
- 9.4.5. The events may be dependent
- 9.5. That which depends on our human nature: the pitfalls of the human brain
- 9.5.1. The two brains
- 9.5.2. Intuition
- 9.5.3. Risk-taking in loss
- 9.5.4. Beware of commitment escalation, and re-evaluate the results
- 9.5.5. Above all, do not over-value the status quo
- 9.5.6. Do not confuse reinforcement and self-suggestion
- 9.5.7. Correlations and classifications
- 9.5.8. Memory
- 9.5.9. You must not idealize or blacken the past
- 9.5.10. Our own over-confidence, and that of experts
- 9.6. That which depends on other people: conflicts and manipulation
- 9.6.1. Conflicts
- 9.6.2. Multicriterion decision-making
- 9.6.3. A skilled decision-maker knows that the goals and the constraints are interchangeable
- 9.6.4. Other people's criteria
- 9.6.5. In a multidimensional world, there is no best decision
- 9.6.6. Beware of manipulation
- 9.6.7. Contextualization
- 9.6.8. False reciprocity
- 9.6.9. Commitments and feigned commitments
- 9.6.10. Groups and leaders
- 9.6.11. Pretty stories and plans which arc too good to be true
- 9.7. What the result depends on: your style and your action
- 9.7.1. The decision is inseparable from the action
- 9.7.2. A good decision-maker is timely
- 9.7.3. The decision does not end with its impulsion
- 9.7.4. Explain your decisions
- 9.7.5. Transparency
- 9.7.6. Freedom
- 9.7.7. Responsibility
- 9.7.8. Natural authority
- 9.7.9. Getting help
- 9.7.10. Fairness
- 9.7.11. Resentment
- 9.8. And finally
- Bibliography
- Index of Names
- General Index
