What to expect when no one's expecting : America's coming demographic disaster /

Journalist Last transcends his conservative credentials in this impressive attempt to consider all the consequences of low fertility and population aging. He cites the latest and best scientific research to show fundamental challenges flowing from these demographic trends. One weak spot repeated by scholars of every persuasion treats 1950s US society as a normal baseline for marriage timing and birth rates, when this period actually was a historical anomaly. The author cautions that correlation is not causation, but presents high church attendance and single-family homes in the midcentury US as "causes" of early marriage and high birth rates. More seriously, he ignores changing the retirement age as a solution to population aging. After a masterful tour of world demographic trends, Last presents policy recommendations that fall solidly into the conservative agenda and dismisses more liberal options, but his wide-ranging discussion of this emerging global issue will provoke reflection by readers at every level. Summing Up: Recommended. All levels/libraries. E. Carlson Florida State University

According to Weekly Standard senior writer Last, hoofbeats are nigh: his "three horsemen" of the apocalypse-"cohabitation, widespread contraceptive use, and liberal abortion policies"-are riding America's population into the ground. Last claims this is not the fault of women working outside the home or the increasing prevalence of higher education, though still largely attributes it to them. The road to population stability is fraught with disincentives to have children and, statistically, America's fertility rate is "artificially" bolstered by non-white new immigrants and citizens; a borderline racist claim cited, confusingly, as part of the "coming disaster." The book is rife with garbled statistics, and Last blatantly muddles causation and correlation to drill his points home. He states that couples with children are less happy than their childless counterparts; yet, for him, the well-examined life requires sacrificing personal goals and shallow pleasure for procreation-as-self-actualization, period. Moreover, Genghis Khan is cited for his global influence through Y-chromosomal paternity. Quantity versus quality of parenting is not addressed, even though today's parents spend more total hours with their children. For Last, the eponymous biological clock has become a moral imperative, and, in his view, the areligious, "shacked up," blue-state Americans are failing. (Feb.) © Copyright PWxyz, LLC. All rights reserved.