Transparency in population forecasting : methods for fitting and projecting fertility, mortality and migration /

Transparency in population forecasting : methods for fitting and projecting fertility, mortality and migration /

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Bibliographic Details
Author / Creator:Beer, Joop de
Imprint:Amsterdam : KNAW Press, 2011.
Description:258 pages : illustrations ; 23 cm.
Language:English
Series:NIDI report ; nr. 83
NiDi rapport ; nr. 83.
Subject:
Population forecasting -- Methodology.
Population forecasting -- Methodology.
Format: Print Book
URL for this record:http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/9801953
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ISBN:9789069846378
9069846373
Notes:Also published as author's thesis Rijksuniversiteit Groningen, 2011.
Includes bibliographical references.
Summary:At the moment that a population forecast for the long run is published the user cannot decide whether the forecast will be accurate. The user can only judge the methods used and assumptions made by the forecaster. This requires transparency of forecasts. The forecaster should make his or her choices of methods and assumptions and the arguments behind these choices explicit. Population projections are based on assumptions about future changes in fertility, mortality and migration. This book describes methods that can be used for making these assumptions and discusses which choices have to be made by the forecaster.

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