Hidden Bibliographic Details
| Other authors / contributors: | International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Department.
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| ISBN: | 1451903022
9781451903027
1462334733
9781462334735
1452773408
9781452773407
1282110918
9781282110915
9786613803795
6613803790
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| Notes: | Includes bibliographical references (pages 19-21).
Restrictions unspecified
Electronic reproduction. [Place of publication not identified] : HathiTrust Digital Library, 2010.
Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002. http://purl.oclc.org/DLF/benchrepro0212
English.
digitized 2010 HathiTrust Digital Library committed to preserve
Print version record.
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| Summary: | Annotation The paper estimates two time-varying parameter models of Chilean inflation: a Phillips curve model and a small open economy model. Their out-of-sample forecasts are compared with those of simple Box-Jenkins models. the main findings are; forecasts that include the pre-announced inflation target as a regressor are relatively better; the Phillips curve model outperforms the small open economy model in out-of-sample forecasts; and although Box-Jenkins models outperform the two models for short-term out-of-sample forecasts, their superiority deteriorates in longer forecasts. Adding a Markov-switching process to the models does not explain much of the conditional variance of the forecast errors.
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| Other form: | Print version: Nadal-De Simone, Francisco. Forecasting inflation in Chile using state-space and regime-switching models. [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, Western Hemisphere Dept., ©2000
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