Hidden Bibliographic Details
| Other authors / contributors: | Goodhart, C. A. E. (Charles Albert Eric), author.
Hofmann, Boris, author.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Department.
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| ISBN: | 9781451909364
1451909365
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| Digital file characteristics: | text file
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| Notes: | Includes bibliographical references.
Restrictions unspecified
Electronic reproduction. [Place of publication not identified] : HathiTrust Digital Library, 2010.
Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002. http://purl.oclc.org/DLF/benchrepro0212
digitized 2010 HathiTrust Digital Library committed to preserve
Print version record.
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| Summary: | This paper uses a Merton-type estimate of the probability of default (PoD) for the main banks in a sample of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and middle-income countries as a proxy for the fragility of their banking systems. Based on theory and stylized facts, the paper explores a range of financial and real variables that explain such PoDs across time. We find property price fluctuations and bank credit to be important explanatory factors. There is two-way interaction between these variables and a clearer relationship when the variables are entered as a deviation from trend. The lag structure between such developments and PoDs is long and varies widely across countries. The paper assesses the implications of these findings for economic policy.
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| Other form: | Print version: Segoviano, Miguel A. Default, credit growth, and asset prices. [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, Monetary and Financial Systems Dept., 2006
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