Hidden Bibliographic Details
| Other authors / contributors: | Mazumder, Sandeep, 1982-
International Monetary Fund. Research Department.
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| ISBN: | 1498399533
9781498399531
1498394205
9781498394208
9781498394208
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| Notes: | "February 2015."
"Research Department."
Includes bibliographical references (pages 22-24).
Online resource; title from pdf title page (IMF.org Web site, viewed November 18, 2015).
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| Summary: | This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve's target, and that labor-market slack is captured by the level of short term unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including the failure of high total unemployment since 2008 to reduce inflation greatly. The fit of our equation is especially good when we measure core inflation with the Cleveland Fed's series on weighted median inflation. We also propose a more general Phillips curve in which core inflation depends on short-term unemployment and on expected inflation as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters. This specification fits U.S. inflation since 1985, including both the anchored-expectations period of the 2000s and the preceding period when expectations were determined by past levels of inflation.
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| Other form: | Print Version: 9781498394208
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| Standard no.: | 10.5089/9781498394208.001
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