Hidden Bibliographic Details
| Other authors / contributors: | Zhang, Longmei, 1984-
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Department.
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| ISBN: | 1513504649
9781513504643
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| ISSN: | 1018-5941
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| Notes: | "May 2015."
"Asia and Pacific Department."
Includes bibliographical references (pages 28-30).
Online resource; title from pdf title page (IMF.org Web site, viewed June 8, 2015).
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| Summary: | Paper analyzes the recent growth dynamics in China, evaluating both cyclical positions and long-term growth prospects. The analysis shows that financial cycles play a more important role than traditional inflation-based cycles in shaping the dynamics of growth. Currently, the 'finance-neutral' gap---our measure of the financial cycle---is large and positive, reflecting imbalances accumulated in the economy since the Global Financial Crisis. A period of slower growth is therefore both likely and needed in the near term to restore the economy to equilibrium. In the medium term, growth will slow as China moves closer to the technology frontier, but a steadfast implementation of reforms can ensure that China follows the path of the "Asia Tigers" and achieves successful convergence to high-income status.
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| Standard no.: | 10.5089/9781513504643.001
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