Estimation and out-of-sample prediction of sudden stops : do regions of emerging markets behave differently from each other? /

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Bibliographic Details
Author / Creator:	Comelli, Fabio, author.
Imprint:	[Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2015.
Description:	1 online resource (34 pages).
Language:	English
Series:	IMF working paper ; WP/15/138 IMF working paper ; WP/15/138.
Subject:	Capital movements -- Econometric models. Regional economics -- Developing countries -- Econometric models. Capital movements -- Econometric models. Regional economics -- Econometric models. Developing countries. Electronic books.
Format:	E-Resource Book
URL for this record:	http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/12504619

Hidden Bibliographic Details
Other authors / contributors:	International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development.
ISBN:	9781513516912 1513516914 9781513502939 151350293X
Notes:	"June 2015." "Institute for Capacity Development." Includes bibliographical references (pages 30-33). Online resource; title from pdf title page (IMF.org Web site, viewed July 10, 2015).
Summary:	We identify episodes of sudden stops in emerging economies and estimate the probability to observe them. Sudden stops are more likely when global growth falters, risk aversion in financial markets rises, and vulnerabilities in the external and financial sectors increase. However, the significance of the explanatory variables vary across regions. In Latin America and Eastern Europe, gross capital inflows are more responsive to changes in global growth than in Asia. Trade linkages tend to be more important than financial linkages in Eastern Europe, while in Asia and Latin America the opposite is true. The model captures only a third of sudden stops outside the estimation sample, but issues reliable sudden stop signals. --Abstract.

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