Hidden Bibliographic Details
| Other authors / contributors: | Phillips, Steven, 1961-
International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Department.
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| ISBN: | 1281601845
9781281601841
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| Notes: | Cover title.
"April 2001"--Page 1
Includes bibliographical references (pages 33-34).
Electronic reproduction. [Place of publication not identified] : HathiTrust Digital Library, 2019.
Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002. http://purl.oclc.org/DLF/benchrepro0212
digitized 2019 HathiTrust Digital Library committed to preserve
Print version record.
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| Summary: | 'Program Numbers' from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts. Statistical bias found only for projections of inflation and official reserves. Statistical efficiency can be rejected for all variables except growth, suggesting that some program projections were less accurae than they might have been. Nevertheless, most projections are found to have some predictive value. Since several findings are shown to be sample-dependent, the full-sample results should be interpreted cautiously.
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| Other form: | Print version: Musso, Alberto. Comparing projections and outcomes of IMF-supported programs. [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, Policy Development and Review Dept., ©2001
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